DUBAI/GAZA/WASHINGTON: When Islamist group Hamas launched a spectacular attack against Israel, it also took aim at efforts to forge new regional security alignments that could threaten Palestinian aspirations for statehood and the ambitions of the group's main backer Iran.
Saturday's assault, the biggest incursion into Israel in decades, coincides with U.S.-backed moves to push Saudi Arabia towards normalising ties with Israel in return for a defence deal between Washington and Riyadh, a move that would slam the brakes on the kingdom's recent rapprochement with Tehran.
Palestinian officials and a regional source said the gunmen who stormed Israeli towns, killing 250 Israelis and taking hostages, were also delivering a message that the Palestinians could not be ignored if Israel wanted security and that any Saudi deal would scupper the detente with Iran.
More than 250 Gazans have been killed in Israel's response.
"All the agreements of normalisation that you (Arab states) signed with (Israel) will not end this conflict," Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas which runs Gaza, said on Al Jazeera television.
A regional source familiar with the thinking of Iran and that of the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah added: "This is a message to Saudi Arabia, which is crawling towards Israel, and to the Americans who are supporting normalisation and supporting Israel. There is no security in the whole region as long as Palestinians are left outside of the equation."
"What happened is beyond any expectation," the source said. "Today is a turning point in the conflict."
The Hamas attack launched from Gaza follows months of rising violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, with stepped-up Israeli raids, Palestinian street attacks and assaults by Jewish settlers on Palestinian villages. Conditions for Palestinians have worsened under the hard-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Peacemaking has been stalled for years.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Israel have both indicated they are moving closer to a normalisation deal. But sources previously told Reuters the kingdom's determination to secure a U.S. defence pact meant it would not hold up a normalisation agreement to win substantive concessions for the Palestinians.
Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, said Hamas may have lashed out due to a sense that it was facing irrelevance as efforts advanced toward broader Israeli-Arab relations.
"As Hamas watched the Israelis and Saudis move close to an agreement, they decided: no seat at the table? Poison the meal,” she said.
TIMING THE ASSAULT
Osama Hamdan, the leader of Hamas in Lebanon, told Reuters that Saturday's operation should make Arab states realise that accepting Israeli security demands would not bring peace.
"For those who want stability and peace in the region, the starting point must be to end the Israeli occupation," he said. "Some (Arab states) unfortunately started imagining that Israel could be the gateway for America to defend their security."
Netanyahu promised "mighty vengeance for this black day" after the launch of Saturday's attack, which came almost exactly 50 years since the start of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 when Israel was attacked by Egyptian and Syrian forces and fought for its survival.
Mirroring the timing of the 1973 war, Hamas official Ali Baraka said of Saturday's assault: "It was necessary that the leadership of the resistance take a decision at the appropriate time, when the enemy is distracted with its feasts."
He said the assault by air, land and sea was "a shock to the enemy and proved the Israeli military intelligence failed to find out about this operation," after Israel, which prides itself on its infiltration and monitoring of militants, was taken by surprise.
In the years since 1973, Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel and several other Arab states have also since normalised ties, including some Gulf Arab states next to Saudi Arabia. But the Palestinians have moved no closer to their aspiration of securing a state, which looks as distant a prospect as ever.
"While not likely the main driver of the attacks, Hamas’s actions send a clear reminder to the Saudis that the Palestinian issue should not be treated as just another subtopic in normalisation negotiations," Richard LeBaron, a former U.S. Middle East diplomat now at the Atlantic Council thinktank, wrote.
IRAN'S REACH
A senior official in U.S. President Joe Biden's administration told reporters it was "really premature to speculate" about the effect the Israeli-Hamas conflict could have on efforts towards Saudi-Israeli normalisation.
"I would say for certain Hamas, terrorist groups like Hamas, will not derail any such outcome. But that process has a ways to go," added the official, speaking on conditional of anonymity.
Netanyahu has previously said the Palestinians should not be allowed to veto any new Israeli peace deals with Arab states.
A regional source familiar with the Saudi-Israeli-U.S. negotiations over normalisation and a defence pact for the kingdom said Israel was committing a mistake by refusing to make concessions to the Palestinians.
In its response to Saturday's attacks, Saudi Arabia called for an "immediate cessation of violence" between both sides.
Iran, meanwhile, has made no secret of its backing for Hamas, funding and arming the group and another Palestinian militant organisation Islamic Jihad. Tehran called Saturday's attack an act of self-defence by Palestinians.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Tehran would stand by the Palestinian fighters "until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem."
A Palestinian official, close to Islamist militant groups, said after the Hamas attack began with a huge barrage of rockets fired from Gaza: "Iran has hands, not one hand, in every rocket that is fired into Israel."
"It doesn't mean that they ordered (Saturday's) attack but it is not a secret that it is thanks to Iran, (that) Hamas and the Islamic Jihad have been able to upgrade their arsenal," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Iran's backing for Palestinian groups is part of a broader network of militias and armed groups it supports across the Middle East, giving Tehran a powerful presence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as Gaza.
Analysts said Iran already appeared to have sent a signal last week that a Saudi deal would hit Riyadh's detente with Tehran, when Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi group killed four Bahraini soldiers in a cross-border strike near the Saudi-Yemeni border. That attack jeopardised peace talks to end Yemen's eight-year conflict.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, added: "This is all about preventing the U.S.-Saudi-Israel breakthrough."
Reuters
Sun Oct 08 2023
Israeli soldiers patrol near a police station which was the site of a battle following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in Sderot, southern Israel October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Nahas helikopter Lumut: Kerajaan tidak bercadang gantung sementara helikoper Fennec, HOM
Kerajaan setakat ini tidak bercadang untuk menggantung sementara perkhidmatan helikopter jenis Fennec dan HOM.
Kejohanan Dunia Boling Padang: Tiga gangsa dalam tangan, misi tukar warna pingat
Skuad boling padang negara layak ke pusingan separuh akhir dalam kesemua kategori yang dipertandingkan di Kejohanan Dunia Dalam Dewan 2024.
Amerika Syarikat mungkin haramkan firma dron China, DJI
Amerika Syarikat kini turut sedang pertimbangkan DJI sebagai ancaman sekuriti, dan mungkin melakukan perundangan untuk mengharamkan DJI.
Bersatu ambil tindakan susulan terhadap enam ahli Parlimen - Muhyiddin
Bersatu sedang melaksanakan tindakan susulan terhadap enam ahli Parlimennya yang menyokong Perdana Menteri selepas meminda Perlembagaan parti bulan lalu.
'Made in Malaysia' - Apple punyai 19 kilang pembekal di negara ini
Malaysia merupakan salah satu negara yang mempunyai beberapa kilang pembekal yang menawarkan komponen kepada Apple.
SPRM lancar bilik gerakan PRK Kuala Kubu Baharu
SPRM melancarkan bilik gerakan, bagi membolehkan orang ramai menyalurkan maklumat serta aduan berkaitan perbuatan rasuah dan salah guna kuasa.
WEF anjur mesyuarat khas di Arab Saudi ketika suhu geopolitik Asia Barat memanas
WEF keluar dari kelazimannya dengan menganjurkan mesyuarat khas dua hari, 28-29 April 2024 di Riyadh, Arab Saudi.
Kerajaan rangka hala tuju beri lebih banyak perlindungan kepada kanak-kanak
Kerajaan akan merangka hala tuju bagi memberikan lebih banyak perlindungan dari segi undang-undang kepada kanak-kanak di negara ini.
Tiada tepung di pasaran tempatan mengandungi benzoil peroksida melebihi kadar dibenarkan - KKM
Tiada mana-mana jenama tepung di pasaran tempatan mengandungi benzoil peroksida melebihi paras yang dibenarkan di bawah undang-undang.
Freedom Flotilla to Gaza: Semua delegasi diminta pulang, FFC akan maklumkan tarikh baharu misi
Menurut Jawatankuasa Pemandu FFC, Ann Wright, pihaknya akan memaklumkan perkembangan terbaharu kepada semua delegasi terlibat sekiranya tarikh akhir pelayaran ditetapkan.
Freedom Flotilla to Gaza: Guinea-Bissau akur kepada Israel, tidak beri kebenaran guna bendera bagi misi pelayaran
Kerajaan Republik Guinea-Bissau dilaporkan tunduk dan akur kepada gesaan Israel untuk tidak membenarkan misi pelayaran Break The Siege: Freedom Flotilla to Gaza menggunakan bendera mereka.
Bantahan perang di Gaza meningkat di universiti, kolej AS
Penunjuk perasaan mendesak agar dihentikan korban awam di Gaza yang kini mencecah lebih 34,000.
Freedom Flotilla to Gaza: Ketegasan Malaysia sekat kapal Israel wajar dicontohi
Walaupun usaha itu dilihat kecil namun ia mampu memberi tekanan kepada rejim Zionis dan menjadi contoh kepada komuniti global.
[LAPOR LANGSUNG] Freedom Flotilla to Gaza: NGO Malaysia gesa kerajaan mohon kebenaran Republik Guinea-Bissau guna bendera
Kumpulan NGO dari Malaysia menggesa kerajaan untuk membantu memudahkan misi pelayaran Break The Siege: Freedom Flotilla to Gaza.
Freedom Flotilla to Gaza: Ideologi Nelson Mandela wajar dicontohi dalam misi capai keamanan - Cucu
Menurut Manlda Mandela, datuknya pencinta keamanan dan bukan seorang pendendam walaupun selepas berjaya mengalahkan rejim apartheid.
Kontroversi UM: Bukan untuk sekat kebebasan universiti - Zambry
Kebebasan yang diberi perlu mengambil kira polisi serta pendirian kerajaan di samping sensitiviti masyarakat dan majoriti rakyat.
Cedera terkena letupan, padah tendang bendera Palestin
Letupan kuat dan asap tebal memenuhi lokasi tersebut sejurus dia menendang bendera Palestin yang dipasang di tengah kawasan padang rumput.
Malaysia kecam serangan Israel di Rafah, gesa masyarakat antarabangsa kecam pencerobohan Zionis
Wisma Putra dalam satu kenyataan pada Selasa memaklumkan situasi di Rafah amat membimbangkan mengambil kira risiko bencana kemanusiaan yang tinggi.
Israel serang tempat perlindungan terakhir penduduk Gaza
Serangan udara di Rafah menyebabkan kerosakan pada khemah, namun jumlah kemalangan nyawa masih belum dapat disahkan.
283 mayat ditemui di kubur Hospital Nasser
Pekerja kesihatan menemukan sekurang-kurangnya 283 mayat dalam satu kubur besar di Hospital Nasser di bandar selatan Khan Younis.