THE broad conclusion to analyses of the recent EMGC survey carried out in conjunction with its media partners was that there was going to be fierce competition to win Selangor state and that at this point, it was PH’s to lose. That is to say that while it is widely agreed that PN can win a majority of Malay votes in Selangor, it is unlikely that non-Malay turnout drops to much less than Malay turnout and that because of this PH is likely to retain Selangor although PN will make even more significant inroads compared to the 2022 GE.
However, there are some voices that do not differentiate between reporting and analyses. EMGC as an independent pollster who has worked with major media organisations as a survey data partner for this PRN would like to briefly explain the issues based on this principle we have always followed.
With regards to the data, while we did transparently report the seemingly extraordinary increase in Malay support for PH from an estimated 24% in GE15 (November 2022) to a reported 52% in the survey (July 2023), EMGC did not go on to conclude that this would indeed be the case on voting day. As most pollsters know, the reported data has to be interpreted and put into context by independent media as well as by pundits and political analysts.
EMGC has a responsibility as a pollster to be transparent with regards to its survey processes as well as its survey reporting and analysis, i.e. EMGC reported 52% of Malays said they would vote PH in the upcoming PRN as this was what was recorded from Selangor Malay voters randomly included as part of the survey sample.
When moving from direct reporting to analysis, we would state that like any poll, this survey had a margin of error (Malay sample: 3.6%). There is also incumbency bias i.e. when some Malaysian respondents (10% - 15%) in any survey provide responses to political choice questions more as what they feel they should answer rather than what they want to answer.
When margin of error and incumbency bias is considered in addition to the fact that Malay respondents felt PN would win a much improved 20 out of 56 Selangor DUN Seats in the PRN plus that this survey ended before the official PN Selangor campaign began, a reasonable analysis of reported EMGC survey results data could argue that it is PN that would, in reality, command the majority of Malay votes in Selangor come voting day. Note that this conclusion would constitute an analysis of the poll results and would not just be a basic reporting of the poll results.
Furthermore, on an issue of method and sampling bias, EMGC conducts stratified random polls. This means that it split the survey into 34 DUNs and subsequently split these into demographic strata within each DUN area. We ensured that field agents randomly selected respondents within strata all to achieve the objective of ensuring that the sample is representative of voter demography in that particular DUN.
EMGC survey was indeed able to illustrate a very high degree of committed responses to questions relating to political choice. However, the fact that EMGC managed to achieve this was not because it was better or worse than certain other surveys that could not achieve this, but rather because EMGC’s approach differs from some other pollsters.
Our interviewers do accept non-committal responses on political choice (don’t know, have not decided, confidential etc.) but are trained well to explain and highlight all committed options equally. This approach translates to most survey respondents committing to one political preference or another. In this, it should be noted that EMGC did report that 5% - 6% of respondents stated their political choice was confidential. Finally, as was carried by our media partners, it should be noted that the survey was completed before nomination day. This means that the data reflects the support level before the full-swing formal campaign period began, i.e. before the onslaught of political messaging and campaigning began in full swing.
Selan Rajendan
Director of Research & Analysis, Endeavour – MGC
Media Statement
Mon Aug 07 2023
There are some voices that do not differentiate between reporting and analyses.
Jabatan Pengajian Antarabangsa dan Strategik UM mohon maaf kepada seluruh rakyat Malaysia
Dalam satu kenyataan pada Sabtu, jabatan itu menegaskan pihaknya kesal dan memandang serius terhadap perkara itu.
AWANI 7:45 [27/04/2024] - Siasatan sama ada Tun M salah guna kuasa | Jangkaan persaingan sengit | FFC umum tangguh misi | Mesyuarat khas dua hari
#AWANI745 malam ini bersama Dzulfitri Yusof;
1. Mokhzani dan Mirzan nafi disiasat SPRM
2. Pertandingan empat penjuru, PRK Kuala Kubu Baharu
3. Freedom Flotilla To Gaza ditangguh, delegasi dunia pulang
4. Mesyuarat Khas WEF berlangsung di Arab Saudi, ketika suhu geopolitik semakin panas
1. Mokhzani dan Mirzan nafi disiasat SPRM
2. Pertandingan empat penjuru, PRK Kuala Kubu Baharu
3. Freedom Flotilla To Gaza ditangguh, delegasi dunia pulang
4. Mesyuarat Khas WEF berlangsung di Arab Saudi, ketika suhu geopolitik semakin panas
Piala Thomas: Jangan pandang mudah Malaysia - Antonsen
Walaupun Malaysia membariskan skuad perseorangan kurang 'menyengat', Anders Antonsen masih menjangkakan saingan sengit.
Budak lima tahun cedera jatuh dari tingkat tiga flat
Seorang kanak-kanak perempuan berusia lima tahun cedera selepas dipercayai terjatuh dari tingkat tiga rumahnya di Flat Taman College Height pada Sabtu.
AWANI Ringkas: Kasino di Forest City
Ikuti rangkuman berita utama yang menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari di Astro AWANI menerusi AWANI Ringkas.
Hamas sudah terima maklum balas Israel mengenai cadangan gencatan senjata
Gesaan dari seluruh dunia untuk satu gencatan senjata semakin meningkat dengan serangan ke atas Gaza kini memasuki bulan ketujuh.
World Economic Forum berbeza dari kelaziman
Lazimnya World Economic Forum (WEF) akan berlangsung setiap musim sejuk di Davos, Switzerland, lokasi lahirnya forum berprestij dunia ini sejak lebih lebih dekad lalu.
Dalam tempoh kira-kira tiga bulan, WEF keluar dari kelazimannya dengan menganjurkan mesyuarat khas dua hari, 28 hingga 29 April 2024 di Riyadh, Arab Saudi.
Ia memberi isyarat, kepentingan kestabilan rantau Asia Barat atau timur tengah ini, bukan perakara main-main.
#AWANI745
Dalam tempoh kira-kira tiga bulan, WEF keluar dari kelazimannya dengan menganjurkan mesyuarat khas dua hari, 28 hingga 29 April 2024 di Riyadh, Arab Saudi.
Ia memberi isyarat, kepentingan kestabilan rantau Asia Barat atau timur tengah ini, bukan perakara main-main.
#AWANI745
Pemain Astro Kem Badminton 2024 berpeluang berlatih di bawah jurulatih BAM
Wan Wah menjelaskan pemain-pemain yang dipilih akan menjalani latihan intensif itu di Akademi Badminton Malaysia (ABM).
#AWANI745
#AWANI745
PRK Kuala Kubu Baharu: Pengundi perlu pilih kestabilan - Fadillah
Fadillah berkata beliau percaya pengundi di kawasan tersebut, boleh membuat keputusan terbaik untuk menentukan calon paling layak untuk mewakili mereka.
Liga Parlimen Al-Quds: Malaysia gesa satu resolusi penyelesaian isu Palestin dapat dicapai
Malaysia antara lain mendesak Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu (PBB) meluluskan resolusi menghantar tentera pengaman ke Palestin.
Tinjauan Pendapat Selangor EMGC (34 Kerusi DUN Majoriti) Melayu
Pihak EMGC menjelaskan, terdapat beberapa pandangan yang tidak dapat membezakan antara pelaporan dan analisis.
Kajian EMGC: PH, BN dan Amirudin Shari kekal pilihan majoriti pengundi Selangor
Perikatan Nasional masih berpotensi memenangi Pilihan Raya Negeri Selangor, sekiranya mereka berjaya memenuhi dua syarat kritikal.