Of the 1,200 people surveyed by pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia between Jan. 28 and Feb 4, 51.8% said they would vote for Prabowo's ticket, while 24.1% and 19.6% would vote for rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo respectively.
This election marks the third presidential run for Prabowo, a controversial ex-soldier who was defeated by outgoing President Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019. About 205 million people are registered to vote.
While most of Indonesia's most watched surveys have consistently showed Prabowo with a solid lead over rivals, Friday's poll is the first in which he is projected to get more than 50% of votes.
A run-off will be held in June if no candidate gets more than 50% of votes.
"Conservatively, there is a chance of a run-off. But given the 51.8% and the upward trend for Prabowo's ticket, I can say the probability of one round has risen...compared to previous surveys," said Indikator researcher Burhanuddin Muhtadi.
About 4.5% of those surveyed were undecided. The margin of error of the survey was about 2.9%.
