With an all-out war on Ukraine underway, a key question has emerged: what can the West do to help Ukraine?
Sanctions and limited military aid will help. Another key strategy, however, is crucial: to counter Russian president Vladimir Putin’s justifications for the war.
Rebutting Putin’s information strategy will weaken his position in what is likely to be a long, drawn-out conflict.
To do that, we first need to understand what his information strategy is.
In a nearly hour-long speech to the Russian people released on February 21, Putin put forward his case for invasion. This speech has been described by observers as “angry” and “rambling” but it was highly scripted.
In fact, it included two key arguments, which we can expect to see constantly reappearing in Russian messaging in the coming weeks and months.
READ MORE: Latest developments on the Ukraine-Russia crisis
One is focused primarily on the Russian population. The other has both a domestic and international audience in mind.
The first part of Putin’s argument outlined a one-sided narrative of Ukrainian history aimed squarely at appealing to the emotions of a domestic audience by showing Russia’s supposed victimisation at the hands of Ukraine.
The narrative begins with a fantastical version of history claiming Ukraine was “entirely created by Russia, or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, communist Russia”.
It then turned to the idea that, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine “never had stable traditions of real statehood”.
Ukraine’s “pro-West civilisational choice”, Putin argued, then inevitably led to a series of catastrophes: endemic corruption, a “West-supported” neo-Nazi takeover of power in 2014, and systematic discrimination against Russian speakers (including a planned genocide).
He concludes by claiming Ukraine might soon have weapons of mass destruction (including nuclear weapons).
How to counter this narrative?
This one-sided, neo-imperial interpretation of history is a fantasy that has great emotional appeal to a former mid-level KGB officer like Putin, who experienced at first hand the humiliating end of an empire in 1991 and now sits in the Kremlin.
Putin gets to feel like an agent of history, rebuilding Russia from the terrible humiliation of the 1990s.
But what about 140 million Russian citizens? How does avenging this historical fantasy help them cope with rising prices, a tanking economy, and growing corruption in their country? What future does Putin’s war of vengeance actually offer to coming generations?
Alexey Navalny, the jailed opposition leader, put this well.
He likened Putin’s arguments to your drunk grandfather’s rant at a family gathering – except, this time, your grandfather “holds power in a country with nuclear weapons”.
Russia has all the tools, Navalny argued, for strong economic and cultural development “in the 21st century from oil to educated citizens”. But these are being thrown away on the basis of “war, dirt, lies, and the palace with the golden eagles in Gelendzhik” (a reference to Putin’s alleged palace that features in a notorious YouTube video).
The second part of Putin’s speech included geopolitical arguments about the reckless expansion of NATO and the United States into Russia’s sphere of influence.
This included evocative language of a “US-built maritime operations centre in Ochakov”, and dire warnings that it will only take seven to eight minutes for US ballistic missiles to reach Moscow from Kharkiv in Ukraine.
He concluded by arguing the US will always want to dismember and weaken Russia because “they just do not need a big and independent country like Russia around”.
This kind of argument is aimed at both domestic and international audiences. In fact, much of this language could be aimed at Beijing, which sees the US in much the same way.
It also has been a popular discussion in the Western media and academia. Even prominent US academics such as John Mearsheimer have made a version of this argument for years. These academic arguments don’t go as far as Putin’s, and certainly the US would like to contain Russia’s power, but such arguments can be misinterpreted as justifying a war in Ukraine.
Countering these arguments requires making a clear distinction between explanation and justification.
An explanation is an argument about why something causes a particular response; it ignores whether the response is good or bad. By contrast, a justification is a claim about why a particular response is the correct one. The West must counter Putin’s justification and show why it was the wrong choice.
In the Ukrainian context, it means being clear that although NATO’s eastward expansion might explain why Putin ordered a full-scale war, it does not justify it.
In fact, a war on Ukraine is the wrong response to NATO expansion because it is likely to encourage the expansion of NATO toward Russia’s borders.
We are already seeing this with growing support for NATO membership in Finland.
Countering Putin’s information strategy therefore involves making two key arguments.
First, it means pointing out this is not a Russian war on Ukraine. It is war of choice entirely attributable to an increasingly detached clique of leaders led by Putin, who have little interest in solving the everyday problems of millions of Russians.
The protests in many cities across Russia – exceedingly brave in the knowing reality of police brutality – suggest many Russians believe this already.
Second, a successful counter to Putin’s information strategy shows a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will only worsen Russia’s security situation. This war of choice will only isolate Russia from allies and encourage the further expansion of NATO onto its borders.
Reuters
Fri Feb 25 2022
Isu telaga jejari: Kerajaan Kelantan beri kerjasama penuh kepada SPRM
Mohamed Fadzli berkata Kerajaan Kelantan tidak akan menganggu proses penyiasatan yang sedang berjalan.
Pilihan raya AS: Biden, Trump setuju dengan dua Debat Presiden
Joe Biden dan Donald Trump setuju mengadakan dua Debat Presiden pada Jun dan September ini sebagai sebahagian daripada kempen pilihan raya.
Legasi Sudirman wajar diteruskan - Aznil
Sudirman mengubah pandangan masyarakat terhadap penggiat seni apabila menampilkan benchmark baharu - iaitu artis perlulah terpelajar.
Filem Lee Chong Wei satukan Tun M, Azmin
Kedua-duanya ketika itu mempunyai beberapa isu berkenaan darjah kebesaran Dr Mahathir ditarik balik dan gesaan Azmin dilantik menjadi PM.
Android akan tambah ciri kenal pasti kejadian ragut, kunci peranti
Menerusi kemas kini terbaharu, peranti Android akan dapat mengenal pasti telefon sekiranya diragut perompak dan mengunci akses.
UPM hasilkan gel tenaga dari kurma untuk ahli sukan dan aktiviti lasak
Pasukan penyelidik menghasilkan formulasi gel tenaga baharu menggabungkan bahan-bahan berkhasiat atau superfood dalam satu paket kecil.
Buku Syed Saddiq singkap ada gerakan cadang lantik Azmin Ali jadi PM pada 2018
Beliau yang pada ketika itu pegawai kepada Dr Mahathir cuba menjadi orang tengah untuk mendamaikan kedua-dua pemimpin tersebut.
Piala Belia: Melaka FA, Sri Pahang FC berdamai
Pihak Persatuan Bola Sepak Melaka dan pengurus pasukan telah dipanggil polis dan sehingga kini, tiada sebarang laporan polis dibuat.
Pesawat Garuda Indonesia lakukan pendaratan cemas selepas enjin terbakar
Pesawat yang membawa 450 penumpang dan 18 anak kapal termasuk jemaah haji baru saja berlepas dari Makassar menuju Arab Saudi.
Pengguna iOS 17.5 dapati foto lama dipadam muncul kembali
Mereka terkejut melihat gambar yang telah bertahun dipadam, tiba-tiba muncul sebagai gambar yang baru dimuat naik ke iCloud.
Putin tiba di Beijing dalam usaha dapatkan sokongan China terhadap perang di Ukraine
Lawatan Putin dilihat sebagai talian hayat ekonomi bagi Rusia selepas Barat mengenakan sekatan yang tidak pernah berlaku sebelum ini.
Putin tukar Menteri Pertahanan, Shoigu dengan ahli ekonomi
Tugas baharu Sergei Shoigu ialah sebagai Setiausaha Majlis Keselamatan Rusia.
Putin angkat sumpah sebagai Presiden Rusia untuk penggal kelima pada Selasa
Vladimir Putin akan mengangkat sumpah sebagai Presiden Rusia untuk penggal kelima yang akan berlangsung di ibu negara, Moscow pada Selasa, lapor Agensi Anadolu.
China, Rusia setuju kekalkan pertukaran pastikan hubungan berkembang lancar
Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin dan Presiden China Xi Jinping bersepakat untuk terus mengekalkan pertukaran erat bagi memastikan hubungan bilateral berkembang dengan lancar dan stabil.
Tiada siapa dapat pecah belah rakyat Rusia selepas serangan keganasan di Moscow - Putin
Putin mengharapkan kerjasama semua negara yang ikhlas berkongsi penderitaan dan sedia bergabung dalam memerangi keganasan.
Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini
Antara pelbagai berita luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
Presiden China dahului mesej ucapan tahniah terhadap pemilihan semula Presiden Putin
Xi berkata pemilihan semula Putin mencerminkan sepenuhnya sokongan daripada rakyat negara itu.
Putin menang besar, peroleh 87 peratus undi
Kemenangan Putin dalam keputusan awal itu adalah yang paling bergaya pernah dicatatkan bagi pemimpin pasca-Soviet.
Berita antarabangsa pilihan sepanjang hari ini
Antara pelbagai berita luar negara yang disiarkan di Astro AWANI, berikut adalah yang paling menjadi tumpuan sepanjang hari ini.
Ramai rakyat Rusia masih setia kepada Putin
Di sebalik perang di Ukraine, Presiden Russia, Vladimir Putin dijangka kekal mentadbir buat penggal kelima di republik itu.